Sometimes history does repeat itself and the preliminary mayor’s race is the latest example.

Readers of this column probably know by now I enjoy breaking down election day numbers to see if there is any meaning behind them. Taking a look at Tuesday’s precinct numbers reveal that not much has changed since 2015 and that would appear to be good news for Jasiel Correia II.

Two years ago Correia took 21 of the city’s 29 precincts. This year he grabbed 20.

Among the voting locations Correia failed to win this year are the exact same five precincts in the city’s North End, precincts 8B, 8C, 9A, 9B and 9C. There was a time the winner of those precincts could feel pretty confident about claiming victory in the election. Correia has changed that.

Similar to 2015 Correia has continued his appeal to voters in the South End and the lower Highlands.

The reason for this? I would point to fiscal decisions.

Correia’s removal of the $10 monthly trash fee truly mattered to people in these areas of the city, especially those that owned multi-family properties and either passed the cost down to tenants or picked up the extra cost themselves. His talk to zero-based budgeting — which is to imply city government is only spending what is necessary — sends a message of fiscal prudence.

Yes taxes are rising 2.5 percent again, and the water and sewer fees are increasing, but those increases have become commonplace regardless of who’s in charge of the city.

These fiscal messages are something Correia has already promoted in the preliminary election as he talks about savings from trash privatization. A concept that his opponent Linda Pereira fights against.

Does this mean Pereira is done?

Absolutely not, but she does face an uphill battle.

There were a total of 1,460 votes — based on the unofficial results — from the three other mayoral candidates, with the largest batch of those going to Richard Cabeceiras. Correia and Cabecerias have battled each other, with Cabecerias regularly opposing Correia from his City Council seat. Could Cabecerias supporters now move to Pereira? It would seem possible.

Additionally, there were many people that stayed home this election day with just 8,763 ballots cast on Tuesday compared with 10,333 two years ago.

The lack of a City Council preliminary certainly helped depress this year’s numbers so you can expect many more people to vote in November. (There were approximately 6,000 more people came out to vote in the 2015 City Election than the preliminary.)

So there are votes to be had, but Pereira will have some work ahead of her. She was only able to flip the one precinct away from Correia in the preliminary and in all but one of the remaining precincts she did win, she did so with a smaller margin than what Sam Sutter received two years ago.

Now we wait for November.

Will Richmond is the Digital City Editor at The Herald News. His Politi-Beat column appears occasionally in The Herald News and at